Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: Wake Forest

NC STATE (15-14, 4-11) at WAKE FOREST (16-12, 6-9)

DATE: Saturday, March 8, 2008 @ Lawrence Joel Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC (14,665)

TIME: Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. EST

RADIO: Wolfpack Sports Network

AIRTIME: 11:30 a.m. EST

TELEVISION: Raycom/Lincoln Financial (ACC Network)

OPPONENT Tuesday night’s game at Virginia Tech couldn’t have started any worse for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons missed 15 of their first 18 shots. They fell behind 33-13 after 13 minutes, shot just 27.6 percent in the half and trailed 47-26 at the break. Wake’s Jeff Teague actually outscored his teammates 14-12 over the first 20 minutes.

Wake Forest never recovered. The Hokies built the lead to 62-32 with 14:36 to play before getting sloppy on their way to an 80-58 victory on Senior Night.

Virginia Tech (18-11, 9-6) helped its postseason resume and sent Wake Forest to its fourth straight loss. The Deacons only shot at making the NCAA field is to win next week’s ACC Tournament. The Hokies will visit Clemson on Sunday knowing that no ACC team has ever failed to get an invitation to the NCAA tournament after winning 10 conference games in the regular season.

Deron Washington made his last regular season game at Cassell Coliseum one of his best with 22 points, 13 rebounds and two highlight reel dunks. Fellow senior Marcus Travis, who rarely sees action, scored the game’s first basket to ignite the home crowd. 

A.D. Vassallo scored 20 points and Jeff Allen 13 for Virginia Tech. Teague led the Deacons with 25 points while Chas McFarland added 10. 

A massive 48-30 rebounding edge helped Virginia Tech outscore Wake Forest 15-4 in second chance points and 17-7 in fast break points.

Wake Forest was playing its third game in six days-- including consecutive road games-- and that may have been too rigorous a stretch for a team loaded with young players. For example, ACC Rookie of the Year candidate James Johnson was held to 3 points by the Hokies and has scored only 7 points in his last two games.

There is no doubt that with Teague, Johnson and McFarland the Deacs have a deeper and better collection of talent than they had a year ago, but seven of their top nine players are either freshmen or sophomores. The most experienced veteran is reserve forward Cameron Stanley, a redshirt junior.

Winning at home is easier for young teams and that has been the case for Wake Forest. The Deacs are 2-10 away from Joel Coliseum compared to 14-2 at home. Among those home wins was an 86-73 upset of Duke on Feb. 17.

For most of the conference season, the Deacons have struggled with shooting. Their field goal percentage (.437) and three-point percentage (.327) in league games ranks them in the bottom third of the ACC. Wake Forest has shot less than 40 percent from the field in three of its last four games, including three in-a-row.

During that same four-game stretch, Teague has stepped up. He has shot nearly 46 percent from the field and 6-of-13 from three-point range while averaging 17.3 points. The All-ACC Rookie candidate can also defend. Teague is among the top-10 in the conference in steals.

Despite faltering in the last couple games, Johnson is Wake Forest’s most impressive player. The Wyoming native leads all ACC rookies in scoring, minutes played and offensive rebounds. He is No. 2 among league freshman in rebounding while topping the Deacs in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Johnson averaged 17.4 points a game during the month of February, scoring 20 points or more four times.

Ishmael Smith is one of the league’s better distributors. Smith is among the ACC’s top-5 in assists. The lightening-quick sophomore is averaging nearly 5 assists per game against league opponents. His assist-to-turnover ratio in ACC games (1.59) is also among the five-best in the conference.

McFarland has been a pleasant surprise and could be the most improved player in the league. The seven-footer has brought additional rebounding, shot blocking and a tough, physical presence inside since moving into the starting lineup in late November. In ACC games, McFarland has averaged 10.2 points and 6.7 rebounds. He exploded for 28 points and 12 rebounds in a loss at Georgia Tech on Mar. 1.

Wake Forest likes an up tempo, high-possession game. The Deacons have averaged 62 field goal attempts a game against ACC teams and average nearly 74 points. They do a good job scoring by forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding.

In ACC games, the Deacons are in the upper half of the league in turnover margin (+3.54), steals (8.3) and offensive rebounds (13.1). Those factors and successful 3-point shooting in a high possession game can sometimes make up for the Deaks defensive deficiencies.

Wake Forest is giving up and average of 77.1 points and 37 percent three-point shooting to ACC opponents.  During their four-game losing streak, the Deacons have allowed 82.5 points a game and .480 shooting from the field.

On February 3^rd, Ben McCauley dunked in a missed 3-pointer by Gavin Grant as time expired to lift NC State over Wake Forest 67-65. The Wolfpack used a zone defense to force the Deacons to miss 8 of their last 10 shots in the final 3:30 of the game. Grant led State with 17 points. Teague countered with 17 for Wake Forest.

Last season, NC State swept Wake Forest, winning 88-74 in Winston-Salem and 73-66 in Raleigh. State has won 8 of the last 14 games in the series, but has been successful at Joel Coliseum only twice in the last 10 trips.

PROBABLE WAKE FOREST STARTERS

No.  Name               Pos.  Ht.   Class PPG   RPG   APG

10    Ishmael Smith     G     6’0   So.   8.4   3.5   4.7

00    Jeff Teague       G     6’2   Fr.   13.4  2.6   2.5

42    L.D. Williams     G     6’4   So.   9.1   3.9   1.1

23    James Johnson     F     6'8   Fr.   14.6  8.3   1.3*

13    Chas McFarland    C     7’0   So.   8.8   5.9   1.6* 

TOP RESERVES:

31    Jamie Skeen       F     6'8   Fr.   5.9  4.2   --

11    Cameron Stanley   F     6’6   RJr.  1.0   1.4   --   

44    David Weaver      F/C   6’10  Fr.   2.2   2.6   --

04    Harvey Hale       G     6'2   Jr.   8.7   2.1   --

* Blocked shots per game

 A WINWould break a 7-game losing streak, give the Wolfpack its second ACC road victory of the season and improve State to 16-14 overall and 5-11 in the ACC as the regular season comes to a close. The Pack would earn its fourth straight victory over Wake Forest in the overall series and sweep the regular season series for the second straight year. State would be assured of a non-losing overall record, no matter what happens in next week’s ACC Tournament. The victory could help the Pack avoid the ACC basement, depending on what Virginia and Boston College do in their final regular season games.  Wake Forest would drop to 16-13 overall and 6-10 in the ACC and lose its fifth straight game.

A LOSS--Would extend the Wolfpack’s losing streak to 8 straight the longest since 1992 when State dropped 9 games in-a-row. The Pack will end the regular season with a record of 15-15 overall and in last place in the ACC at 4-12. State would need at least one victory in the ACC Tournament to avoid a non-losing overall record. The Pack will take on the tournament’s No. 6 seed at approximately 2:30 p.m. on Thursday, March 13^th.  Wake Forest would split its regular season series with NC State and win at Joel Coliseum for the ninth time in the last 11 years. The Deacons would improve to 17-12 overall and 7-9 in the ACC.

MR. T Trevor Ferguson has played sparingly this season, but lately he has been one of the Pack’s most consistent scorers. The redshirt sophomore came off the bench to lead State in scoring in back-to-back games against Virginia and FSU. He recorded a career high 17 points against Florida State on Feb. 27.  In his last 3 games, Ferguson has averaged 12.3 points (37) while shooting 8-of-12 from the three point arc.

STRONGER BENCH With Trevor Ferguson and Tracy Smith leading the way, the Wolfpack’s bench outscored Florida State’s reserves 36-2 on Feb. 27. In the last 4 games, the Pack’s bench has averaged 29.0 points (116).

 

BIG BEN SOUNDS OFFBen McCauley did not start against Duke on Mar. 1, but that didn’t stop him from having his best game of the season. The 6-10 junior scored a season-high 19 points in 23 minutes against the Blue Devils. He also added 3 rebounds and 3 assists.

 

CAN’T STOP THEM -- During the 7-game losing streak, State’s defense has allowed an average of 79.7 points a game (558). Opponents are shooting .471 from the field (196-416) and .446 from the 3-point arc (50-112) during that stretch.

THE WINNING NUMBER IS... State is 3-1 against ACC opponents when holding them to 70 points or less, but only 1-10 when yielding 71 points or more.

OH...THOSE TURNOVERS In the last 5 games, opponents have outscored the Pack 102-31 in points off turnovers. State is 3-2 in ACC games when recording as many or fewer turnovers than its opponents. The Pack is 1-9 when losing the turnover battle in conference play. 

F-I-N-I-S-HState has won 3 ACC games this season after enjoying a halftime lead (Miami, FSU and Virginia Tech). However, the Pack lost to Maryland and twice to Duke after holding an edge at the intermission. Against Wake Forest on Feb. 3, State trailed by 7 points at the break, but rallied to win.

SECOND HALF ISSUESDuring its 7-game losing streak, State has allowed opponents an average of 39.1 second-half points (274) as well as .515 shooting from the field (100-194) and .466 from 3-point range (27-58) in the final 20-minutes.

MR. CLUTCH Gavin Grant is State’s top scorer in ACC games (13.3) and he has made some big shots. Three times this season, Grant’s heroics in the final seconds have won games for the Wolfpack. His steal and layup with 2.1 seconds left in overtime gave State a 79-77 victory over Miami on Jan 19. Grant’s free throws against Villanova and Davidson were also game-winners. At Duke on Jan. 31, the senior forward scored a career-high 26 points.

CLOSE CALLS The Pack’s four ACC wins have been decided by an average of only 4.3 points.

ALL-ACC ROOKIE CANDIDATE --J.J. Hickson leads all ACC freshmen in rebounding (8.4) and double-doubles (9) while running a close second to Wake Forest’s James Johnson in scoring (14.5). The Marietta, Georgia, native leads the conference in field goal percentage (.591) and is No.2 in rebounding.  Hickson was chosen as the ACC Rookie of the Week for the third time on Jan. 28^th after he averaged 14 points and 10 rebounds in games against Georgia Tech and FSU. Hickson leads the Pack in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots (46). However, he has struggled recently. In the last 3 games, he has averaged 8 points (24) and 5.7 rebounds (17).

ACC RECORD J.J. Hickson set an ACC single game freshman record with 23 rebounds in a loss to Clemson on Feb 16. If he continues to rebound at his current pace (8.4) he will break the NC State single season freshman record for rebounding average set by Kenny Carr in 1975 (8.2).

WANTED: REBOUNDING Despite J.J. Hickson’s rebounding numbers, the Pack has outrebounded only 5-of-15 ACC opponents. In the last 7 games, State has been outscored 90-68 on second chance points.

 

LET IT FLY State is shooting an impressive .397 from 3-point range in conference games. Even during the 7-game losing streak, State’s 3-point shooting has been solid (.379). State has made 47-of-124 from the bonusphere during that span.

DOUBLING UP Courtney Fells has scored in double-figures in 12-of-15 ACC games this season and is the team’s No.2 scorer in league games (13.1) while shooting .511 from the field and .463 from the 3-point arc. His clutch 3-pointer with 18-seconds to play in overtime was huge in State’s victory over Miami on Jan. 19.  On Jan. 23, Fells scored a career-high 23 points vs. Georgia Tech. Three days later at FSU, he sank two game-tying 3-pointers down the stretch to help State win. The junior guard is also the Pack’s best perimeter defender.

A STRONG LINE State is getting to the foul line an average of nearly 21 times a game against ACC opponents and is shooting .728.

 

AT THE POINT Freshman Javier Gonzalez and sophomore transfer Marques Johnson were pushed into service following a season-ending knee injury to starting point guard Farnold Degand on December 23^rd. The progress has been slow, but Gonzalez is stepping up. Against Duke on Mar. 1, Gonzalez scored a career high 18 points and committed only one turnover in 32 minutes. He dished out a career high 9 assists vs. North Carolina on Feb. 20.  In his last 13 games, Gonzalez has averaged 6.2 points (80), 2.2 rebounds (28), 3.5 assist (46) and 2.2 turnovers (28). He leads the Wolfpack in steals (30).

TOUGH SCHEDULE State is 2-6 against foes ranked in the nation’s top-25. The Pack has faced more ranked opponents than any ACC team and is the only league team to face Duke and UNC twice.

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North Carolina State University Athletics

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