Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: Florida State

 NC STATE (12-6, 1-3) at FLORIDA STATE (13-7, 2-3)

DATE: Saturday, January 26, 2008 @ Donald Tucker Center, Tallahassee, FL (12,100)

TIME: Tip-off: 1:30 p.m. EST

RADIO: Wolfpack Sports Network. 

AIRTIME: 1:00 p.m. EST

 

TELEVISION:  Raycom /Lincoln Financial Sports (ACC Network)

 

OPPONENT FSU was struggling to get back in balance and sync. Due to injuries and a suspension the Seminoles had to use essentially a six-man rotation for about three weeks, leaving them with only one low-post player for their first two conference games.

On Jan.16^th in a 70-57 loss to Duke, sophomore forward Ryan Reid, whose eligibility was restored after a nine-game suspension, logged 18 minutes but committed 5 turnovers.

Reid started while 6-10 Julian Vaughn and 6-7 Jordan DeMercy returned to the lineup four days later at Wake Forest, but their presence did not seem to make much of an immediate difference. FSU committed 15 turnovers and shot just 35.7 percent in a 74-57 loss to the Deacons.

Heading into Wednesday night’s game against Virginia at home, Coach Leonard Hamilton was upset with the Noles decision-making on offense and said he would try to simplify things. Apparently Hamilton’s tweaking worked.

FSU shot 50 percent in the second half and rallied from a 10-point deficit to beat the Cavaliers 69-67.  Toney Douglas led the Noles with 19 points, but it was his defense on Sean Singletary that literally stole the game away from UVa.

Douglas, the ACC steals leader, drove past Singletary for a baseline layup to give FSU the lead, 62-60, with 1:55 to play. With 31 seconds to go and FSU up by one, Douglas picked Singletary's pocket for his sixth steal of the game. His two free throws gave FSU a 65-62 advantage and some breathing room.

In addition to all that, Douglas grabbed a team-high six rebounds and held Singletary, one of the top scorers in the league, to only 11 points on 4-of-11 shooting.  Mamadi Diane led Virginia with 21 points, Adrian Joseph added 17 points and a game-high 8 rebounds.

FSU held Virginia to 41.7 percent shooting for the game, held its own on the boards and outscored the Cavaliers 23-11 in the last 9 minutes to snap a three-game ACC losing streak.

The victory in front of 7,314 fans was career No. 300 for Hamilton. The last 100 came during his five-plus seasons at Florida State.

The Seminoles desperately want to end their 10-year NCAA Tournament drought. They appear to have enough of a perimeter game to do it, but inside is still a question mark.

7-1 freshman Solomon Alabi was lost for the season after 9 games with a stress fracture. After 10 games, 6-8 junior Casaan Breeden transferred to the College of Charleston. Add the above mentioned injuries and suspension and the Noles are still trying to find an inside game. 

The only consistent post player for FSU is 6-9 Uche Echefu, although Reid has started alongside Echefu for two straight games and averaged about 18 minutes in that span.

Offsetting the Noles inside weakness is a trio of ultra-quick, experienced guards who like to play at a fast tempo, relentlessly attack the basket and break down opposing defenses with dribble penetration. They not only dash and slash; they can shoot from long-range, too.

Douglas is a natural scorer and outstanding defender and he has worked hard to become a good point guard. Isaiah Swann is a dangerous 3-point shooter (.398) and also leads the team in assists while Jason Rich has averaged in double-figure scoring in each of his last three seasons. All three have scored 1,000 career points or more.

A fourth guard, Ralph Mims, started against Virginia, but normally comes off the bench. He’s the team’s top percentage 3-point shooter (.408), but really drives the ball effectively and he averages nearly 2 steals a game.

The Seminoles are good at exploiting mismatches with their guards against bigger defenders, allowing them to either drive and finish, dish or pull up for jump shots. They also average 9 steals a game and create a lot of offense with their defense.

Despite its “guard heavy” attack, FSU has more turnovers than assists (319-249) and is alongside NC State at the bottom of the ACC in scoring in league games (66.2 ppg.).

There is also a correlation between the Noles inside issues and the fact that they are ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense (76.2), field goal percentage defense (.476) and rebounding margin versus ACC opponents (-5.0).

In 2006-07, defending the 3-point shot was a strong point for the Noles, but not this season. In ACC games, opponents are shooting (.400) from the bonusphere. NC State is shooting .403 from the arc vs. league teams.

Keeping the Seminoles off the foul line makes a big difference. Florida State is among the nation’s top free throw shooting teams (.788) and is shooting (.729) from the line in ACC games.

Hamilton does not have as deep a bench as he’d like and uses mainly an eight-man rotation. Douglas, Rich and Swann all average at least 32 minutes a game

FSU has beaten the Pack only twice in the last 16 games of the series, but won last season in Tallahassee 78-52. State is 0-2 this season in ACC road games. State’s last ACC road win was Jan. 31, 2007 at Virginia Tech.

PROBABLE FLORIDA STATE  STARTERS

No.  Name               Pos.  Ht.   Class PPG   RPG   APG

23    Toney Douglas     G     6’1   Jr.   14.0  2.8   3.0

03    Isaiah Swann      G     6'2   Sr.   12.3  3.4   3.1

25    Jason Rich        G     6’3   Sr.   12.4  4.9   2.2

41    Uche Echefu       F     6’9   Jr.   11.5  7.4   1.0*

42    Ryan Reid         F     6’8   So.   4.9   4.5   1.0

TOP RESERVES:

10    Ralph Mims        G     6’3   Sr.   10.5  4.4   1.6

21    Julian Vaughn     F     6’10  Fr.   3.4   2.2   --

02    Jordan DeMercy    F     6’7   Fr.   1.4   1.0   --

33    Matt Zitani       F     6’7   Gr.   1.8   1.3   --

* Blocked shots per game

  A WIN--Would be the Wolfpack’s first on the road in the ACC this season and first since last Jan. 31^st.

State would improve to 13-6 overall and 2-3 in the ACC and beat FSU for the 15^th time in the last 17 games of the series. State would break a streak of 7 straight ACC road losses dating back to last season and would beat FSU for the sixth time in the last 7 games in Tallahassee. The Seminoles would drop to 13-8 overall and 1-4 in the ACC and lose for only the second time at home this season (10-2). The Wolfpack will try to sweep the regular season series with FSU when the two teams meet again in Raleigh on February 27^th.

A LOSS--Would be the second straight and fourth in the last five games for Wolfpack, dropping State to 12-7 overall and 1-4 in the ACC. The Pack would lose its third straight ACC road game and drop back-to-back games to FSU in the series for the first time since 1998.  FSU wins for only the third time in the last 17 games of the series. The Seminoles improve to 14-7 overall and 2-3 in the ACC with their second straight league victory. The Pack will try to gain a split in the regular season series with FSU when the teams meet again in Raleigh on February 27^th.

FIND FELLS!!! Courtney Fells has been a standout for the Pack since the start of the ACC season. In four league games, the junior guard has averaged 18.0 points (49) and 3.8 rebounds (15) while shooting 28-47 from the field (.596) and 13-25 from the 3-point arc (.520). His clutch 3-pointer with 18-seconds to play in overtime was a big part of State’s come-from-behind victory over Miami on Jan. 19. He scored a career-high 23 points vs. Georgia Tech on Jan. 23.

GENERAL GRANT LEADS THE FINAL CHARGE Three times this season, Gavin Grant’s heroics in the final seconds have won games for the Wolfpack. A steal and layup by the senior with 2.1 seconds left in overtime gave State a 79-77 victory over Miami on Jan 19. Grant’s free throws in the final seconds against Villanova and Davidson were also game-winners. The senior leads the team in assists (58) and minutes (30.8).

 

BETTER STARTS In its last two ACC games, State has combined to average 35 points and shoot 9-17 from three-point range (.529). That was a big improvement over the previous four games. In the first half of those contests, State averaged only 20.3 points (81) and shot .093 percent from the 3-point arc (3-32).

IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS In the last 11 games, State has 8 wins. During that stretch, the Pack has held its opponents to 65.0 points (715) and .356 shooting from the field (278-781). The Pack has won the rebounding battle in 8 of those games and outscored the competition 192-90 at the foul line.

GETTING TO THE LINE Free throw shooting has been a big weapon for the Wolfpack. State has made more free throws this season than its opponents have attempted (314-to-234). Overall, State is 71 percent from the stripe (314-445).

 

CAN I HAVE LONG DISTANCE, PLEASE? After shooting only 9-of-27 (.333) from the 3-point arc in its first three ACC games, State is finding the range. In its last two games, the Pack has shot .457 from the bonusphere (16-35). However, no active State player is shooting more than 37 percent from the arc.

INSIDE THE ARC Take away State’s three-point shooting this season and the numbers are very good. The Wolfpack has connected on 51 percent of its 2-point shots (315-612).

ACC LEADER Freshman center J.J. Hickson leads the ACC in field goal percentage (.620), but shooting only 41 percent in league games. The rookie leads the Pack in scoring (15.5), rebounding (7.9) & blocks (1.6).

THE POINT OF IT ALL Due to a season-ending knee injury to Farnold Degand on December 23rd, the Wolfpack has been forced to rotate two inexperienced point guards. Freshman Javier Gonzalez and sophomore transfer Marques Johnson are learning the hard wayon the job. Gonzales leads the Pack in steals (19), but both players have had ups and downs as they continue to learn and mature.

STOP THE BOMBING ACC opponents have combined to shoot 42 percent from the 3-point arc against the Wolfpack this season (24-57). UNC shot the best long-range percentage against the Pack (.545) on 6-11 from the bonusphere. Overall, State is giving up 79 points and 49 percent field goal shooting in ACC games.

North Carolina State University Athletics

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