Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: North Carolina

 NC STATE (11-3, 0-0) at No. 1 NORTH CAROLINA (16-0, 1-0)

DATE: Saturday, January 12, 2008 @ Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC (21,800)

TIME: Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. EST

RADIO: Wolfpack Sports Network

AIRTIME: 11:30 a.m.  EST

TELEVISION:  ESPN

OPPONENTCarolina is off to its best start since 1997-98. That team won its first 17 games and went to the Final Four. This unit could be heading to the same destination.

The Tar Heels haven’t had many close calls this season, but it’s interesting that their closest brush with the loss column came in their first ACC game. Wayne Ellington’s three-pointer with 0.4 seconds left in overtime gave the Heels a 90-88 victory at No. 19 Clemson last Sunday.

Whether Carolina can dominate in the ACC like it did against its non-conference opponents is open to discussion. What is pretty obvious, however, is that the Heels are the most talented team in the league. The numbers don’t lie.

Carolina leads the ACC and is No.2 nationally in scoring at a whopping 92.1 points a game, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg. The Heels shoot a league-leading .492 from the field and no ACC team grabs more rebounds (44.6). UNC is either No. 1 or No. 2 in the ACC in rebound margin (+11.5), offensive rebounds (15.8), assists (17.6) and assist-to-turnover ratio.

It’s no surprise that the ACC’s top scorer and rebounder wears a Carolina uniform. Tyler Hansbrough is the cornerstone of UNC’s attack. The junior center gets to the foul line an average of 10 times a game and his ability to finish tough shots in the lane is exceptional. When Hansbrough has his way inside, Carolina is very hard to beat.

While the defense is giving up more points than Coach Roy Williams would like (70.6), it’s still pretty good. The Heels are holding opponents to a paltry .418 shooting from the field and .321 from the three-point arc.

Carolina averages nearly 10 steals a game while forcing 18 turnovers. That defensive pressure helps fuel a high possession, fast tempo attack. The Heels turn their opponents’ bad shots and turnovers into points very quickly.

Last season, the Tar Heels were a relatively young team. Now youngsters like Ellington and Ty Lawson are veterans. Lawson, who could be the league’s fastest player, has more than twice as many assists as turnovers, shoots .542 from the field and averages 2 steals a contest.

Ellington has really elevated his game, giving Carolina’s offense the balance it needs on the perimeter. The sophomore guard has boosted his scoring average and is shooting a red hot 43 percent from 3-point range.

The unsung hero of the team is junior wingman Danny Green. The Tar Heels top reserve does just about everything well. He’s a solid defender and rebounder who scores in double-figures and has excellent long-range shooting ability.

Forward Marcus Ginyard is also underrated. The 6-5 junior is a solid defender who can rebound and find the open man.

Even with the loss of reserve point guard Bobby Frasor to a season-ending knee injury, Carolina is still able to go at least 8-deep. However, this team does not have the depth of last year’s unit. Hansbrough and Ellington each average about 30 minutes.

UNC has won 8 of the last 9 games of the series with NC State. The Pack shot 76.5 percent in the second half in its upset of the No.3 ranked Heels on February 3, 2007. State’s last win over Carolina at the Smith Center was a 75-67 triumph on Feb. 25, 2003.

PROBABLE UNC STARTERS

No.  Name               Pos.  Ht.   Class PPG   RPG   APG

02    Wayne Ellington   G     6’4   So.   18.1  3.8   1.8

05    Ty Lawson         G     5’11  So.   13.5  2.6   5.7

50    Tyler Hansbrough  C     6'9   Jr.   21.8  9.8   --

01    Marcus Ginyard    F     6'5   Jr.   6.9   5.1   2.0

21    Deon Thompson     F     6'8   So.   8.3   5.9   1.3*

TOP RESERVES:

14    Danny Green       F/G   6'5   Jr.   12.7  4.7   2.2

32    Alex Stepheson    F     6’9   So.   3.4   4.6   --

11    Quentin Thomas    G     6’3   Sr.   1.6   1.1   1.9

* Blocked shots per game

 A WINWould be the Pack’s eighth in-a-row and it’s first over a No.1 ranked team in nearly four years (Feb. 15, 2004 vs. Duke). State would beat the Tar Heels for the second straight year and win for the first time at the Smith Center since 2003. The Wolfpack would record a victory over a ranked team for the second time this season and improve to 12-3. State would win its ACC opener for the first time in the Sidney Lowe era and  snap Carolina’s 16-game winning streak, dropping the Tar Heels to 16-1 overall and 1-1 in the ACC. The Wolfpack and Tar Heels meet again in Raleigh on February 20^th.

A LOSS--North Carolina would win for the ninth time in the last 10 games of the series and beat the Pack in Chapel Hill for the fifth straight year. The Tar Heels would improve to 17-0 overall and 2-0 in the ACC, snapping State’s 7-game winning streak. Carolina would remain No.1 in the national polls. The Wolfpack would drop its ACC opener for the second straight year and fall to 11-4 overall and 1-3 in road games, losing to Carolina for the third straight time in the series.

INJURIES The injury bug has taken a bite out of the Wolfpack this season. Starting point guard Farnold Degand was lost for the season with a knee injury suffered on December 23 vs. Cincinnati. Reserve forward Dennis Horner suffered a high ankle sprain the first week of January and missed the Presbyterian and NC Central games. Starting guard Courtney Fells sprained his ankle in the first half against NC Central on Jan. 9^th.

POINT GUARD BY COMMITTEE With the injury to Farnold Degand, the Wolfpack has been forced to rotate two young and inexperienced point guards. Freshman Javier Gonzales and sophomore transfer Marques Johnson are trying to make the best of the opportunity. The good news is that in the four games since Degand went down, the point guard position has been responsible for only 9 turnovers.

 

IMPROVING DEFENSE State has good size and that length has helped the Pack compile some impressive defensive numbers. The Wolfpack is allowing opponents only 61 points a game and .377 shooting from the field this season (32 percent from 3-point range).

IMPRESSIVE STREAK During its 7-game winning streak, State has held its opponents to 56.9 points (398) and .292 shooting from the field (155-530). The Pack has won the rebounding battle in six games and outscored the competition 143-43 at the foul line.

THE LINE HAS BEEN KIND Free throw shooting has been a big offensive weapon for the Wolfpack. State has made more free throws this season than its opponents have attempted (262-to-168). Overall, State is shooting 71 percent from the foul line.

 

LONG DISTANCE BLUES After shooting a respectable 36 percent from 3-point range last season, State’s numbers have fallen off in the 2007-08 campaign. The Pack is connecting on just 30 percent of its shots from the bonusphere (64-213) and no active Wolfpack player is shooting 35 percent or better.

THERE’S ROOM INSIDE THE ARC Take away State’s three-point shooting this season and the numbers are very impressive. The Wolfpack has connected on 54 percent of its 2-point shots (244-452).

ALL ACC ROOKIE CANDIDATE Freshman center J.J. Hickson leads all ACC rookies in scoring (16.5) and is second in rebounding (7.7). The Georgia native leads the entire league in field goal percentage (.702) and has connected on 20 of his last 25 shots from the field.

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North Carolina State University Athletics

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