North Carolina State University Athletics
Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: Wake Forest
2/28/2007 12:00:00 AM | Men's Basketball
DATE: Wednesday, February 28, 2007 @ RBC Center, Raleigh, NC (19,722)
TIME: Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. EST
RADIO: Wolfpack Sports Network
AIRTIME: 8:30 p.m. EST
TELEVISION: ESPNU
OPPONENT—Wake Forest has been playing better basketball lately. The Demon Deacons have won two of their last 3 games with improved defense. In back-to-back wins, the Deacs held Clemson and Miami to a combined .396 shooting from the field while outscoring them from the foul line 41-18.
However, the defense and free throw shooting took a step backward on February 21. Georgia Tech shot nearly 50 percent and a Wake Forest rally fell short in a 75-61 loss in Atlanta despite a career-high 24 points off the bench from freshman Anthony Gurley.
Wake Forest was only 3-of-12 from the foul line in the opening 20 minutes and finished the game 9-of-18. Kyle Visser scored 15 points and was the only other Wake Forest player to score in double figures.
Senior Michael Drum, one of the Deacs top 3-point shooters, did not play because of a bruised knee suffered in the first half of the February 17 Miami game. It was the first time Drum missed a game in his Wake Forest career. He’s is questionable for Wednesday’s game at NC State.
The Deacons overcame an early 17-point deficit to cut the margin to 56-52 on a 3-point field goal by Jamie Skeen with 8:02 remaining. But, Thaddeus Young scored four minutes later to cap a Tech 9-0 run and a 65-52 lead. Wake Forest never got closer than 11 points after that.
Javaris Crittenton led Tech with 22 points while Young added 17. Wake Forest shot only 45 percent and was outrebounded 36-27. The Deacs have been idle since that game.
Wake Forest does not have much experience on the roster (2 seniors, 0 juniors), so it’s no surprise that Visser carries a big load. The veteran center has played in 123 career games. He ranks in the top-10 in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage and blocked shots.
Visser is the only Wake Forest player to average in double-figure scoring and he has recorded six double-doubles. The senior is tough to stop when he gets the ball deep in the lane, but outside the paint his game is not as strong and he’s inconsistent at the free throw line. The team foul shooting is also poor –just 63 percent overall (.618 in ACC games).
After Visser, the rest of Wake Forest’s scoring is distributed pretty evenly. Six other players average at least seven points a game or better and two freshmen have been major contributors.
In Ishmael Smith, the Deacons have one of the quickest point guards in the ACC. He leads the league in assists (5.8) and is ninth in assist-to-turnover ratio (+1.67). Smith has dished out at least 6 assists in 13 games this season, but he’s also the team’s No. 2 scorer and has reached double-figures 10 times.
Another rookie, L.D. Williams, has started every game this season and is improving. He’s averaged nearly 10 points over his last 8 games while getting better at the foul line (13 of last 17). One of the ACC’s most athletic players, Williams’ slam dunks have been shown frequently on ESPN’s SportsCenter.
Against ACC teams, Wake Forest has sometimes struggled offensively. The Deacons are averaging only 67.6 points and .432 shooting from the field, including .345 from the 3-point arc. Ball handling has also been an issue. In ACC games, the Deacons have more turnovers than any league team (229).
Depth is not a problem. Wake Forest has 10 players that average at least 9 minutes and no player sees more than 29 minutes of action per game. However, defense continues to be a concern.
Wake Forest is at or near the bottom in the ACC in scoring defense (77.4) and field goal percentage defense (.480) in conference games, but the Deacs are better than average at defending the 3-point shot (.351). In the past, offensive rebounding and 3-point shooting in a high possession game could sometimes make up for the Deacons defensive deficiencies. Wake Forest is only average at best in those categories this season.
The Deacons’ top long-range gunners are sophomore Harvey Hale, who leads the team in 3-point attempts and makes (35-101), Skeen (.416) and Drum (.415).
The winner of Wednesday’s game will emerge from a group of three teams at the bottom of the ACC standings. Wake Forest holds the tie-breaker with the other team in the group, Miami.
The Wolfpack shot 68 percent in the second half to beat the Deacons 88-74 in Winston-Salem on Jan. 13. Courtney Fells and Gavin Grant combined for 44 points and State scored 19 points off 22 Wake Forest turnovers.
State has won 6 of the last 12 games in the series, but has lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in Raleigh.
PROBABLE WAKE FOREST STARTERS
No. Name Pos. Ht. Class PPG RPG APG
10 Ishmael Smith G 5’11 Fr. 8.5 3.6 5.8
04 Harvey Hale G 6'0 So. 8.1 1.8 --
55 Kyle Visser C 6'11 Sr. 17.3 7.3 1.4*
31 Jamie Skeen F 6'8 Fr. 7.3 4.6 1.3
42 L.D. Williams G/F 6'4 Fr. 8.1 3.9 1.3
TOP RESERVES:
33 Anthony Gurley G 6'3 Fr. 6.8 1.7 --
02 Shamaine Dukes G 6'1 So. 2.8 1.8 1.4
34 Michael Drum G 6'6 Sr. 7.9 2.5 1.2
23 Kevin Swinton F 6'7 So. 3.0 2.6 --
44 David Weaver F/C 6’10 Fr. 2.3 1.7 --
* Blocked shots per game
A WIN--Would break a Wolfpack 2-game losing streak and move State to 5-10 in the ACC with one regular season game remaining. The Pack would improve to 15-13 overall and keep alive the possibility of a non-losing season. State would sweep the regular season series with Wake Forest for the first time since 2004 and win the tie-breaker with the Deacs regarding the final ACC standings. The Pack would move out of the league basement and improve to 13-6 at home and 3-5 in ACC home games. State winds up the regular season on Saturday at Maryland, while Wake Forest plays host to Virginia. The ACC Tournament is March 8-11 in Tampa, Florida.
A LOSS--Would mark the Pack’s second, 3-game losing streak of the season and drop State to 14-14 overall and 4-11 in the ACC. The Pack would remain in the ACC cellar. The Deacons would beat the Pack for the third time in the last four games of the series and improve to 14-14 overall and 5-10 in the ACC. Wake Forest would win only its second ACC road game of the season and emerge from the bottom of the league standings. The Deacons will host Virginia while State travels to Maryland next Saturday to wind-up the regular season. The ACC Tournament is March 8-11 in Tampa, Florida.
LAST 3 HALVES NOT PRETTY –After upsetting Virginia Tech for the second time this season on February 18, State traveled to North Carolina on Feb 21 and played an excellent first half. Since then, the picture has not been pretty. The Pack lost at UNC and was routed at FSU. In the 3 halves since the first 20-minutes in Chapel Hill, State has shot only .406 from the field (26-64) and committed 31 turnovers while being outrebounded 57-29. The Wolfpack has surrendered 120 points in the three halves as well as 50 percent shooting from the field (45-90) and 45 percent from the 3-point arc (13-29).
THE McCAULEY FACTOR—Since the Pack’s win over Virginia Tech on Feb 18, Ben McCauley has struggled offensively. State’s top post player has scored only 5 points and attempted just 7 shots from the field (2-7). It is the first time this season that McCauley has not performed at a very high level. In fact, McCauley is the most improved player on the NC State team. Last season, the sophomore center averaged 5.5 minutes in 13 ACC games. This season, he’s playing 35 minutes a contest and he’s responded in a big way. McCauley He’s averaging 15.1 points and tops the Pack in shooting while running No.2 in rebounds (6.5) and total assists (91). In his last 8 games, McCauley is shooting .629 (44-of-70) from the field. He has recorded 3 double-doubles.
THE CLOCK IS TICKING --Four NC State starters rank among the ACC leaders in minutes played. Gavin Grant has played every minute of six games this season. Ben McCauley and Brandon Costner have gone the distance in three games each with Courtney Fells never coming out in two games.
PACK OF SHOOTERS --The Wolfpack is No.4 in ACC games in field goal percentage at .472 and is shooting .490 overall this season. State shot 66.7 percent in its win over Virginia Tech on Feb. 18—its best shooting performance in an ACC game since 1982. Ben McCauley is the Pack’s leading shooter at .593—fourth-best in the ACC.
DEFENSE IS THE DEAL –In State’s upset of No. 25 Virginia Tech on Feb. 18., the Pack held the Hokies to a season-low 56 points and 38.5 percent second-half shooting. The same formula worked earlier this season in back-to-back wins over No. 16 Virginia Tech and No. 3 UNC. In those two games, the Pack surrendered an average of 69 points, .418 shooting from the field and .280 from 3-point range. Following that pair of wins, the Pack dropped three straight games and the common factor was a LACK of defense. In the three losses, opponents averaged 79.6 points (239) and nearly 50 percent shooting (.86-173) from the field, including 46 percent from the 3-point range (17-37).
WITH DEFENSE COMES REBOUNDING –In State’s three biggest wins this season—two over Virginia Tech and an upset of UNC—the Pack held a 101-75 rebounding advantage. The Pack has tied or outrebounded its opponents 12 times and has a 9-3 record. When State has lost the battle of the boards, the Pack is 5-10.
TERRIFIC TURK—Engin Atsur has made a big difference in the Wolfpack since his return from a hamstring injury. State is 8-7 this season with Atsur in the lineup and no doubt that record would be even more impressive if the Pack’s only point guard had not suffered an injury in November. What kind of difference has the native of Turkey made? He scored a game-high 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting from the field and added 7 assists in the Wolfpack’s upset of No. 25 Virginia Tech Feb. 18. In the upset of No. 3 North Carolina on Feb. 3, Atsur recorded his first double-double of the season with 12 points and 10 assists in 38 minutes. The likable senior continues to recover from a serious hamstring injury that forced him to miss 12 games this season. In his last 4 games, Atsur has averaged 14.5 points (58) and 4.0 assists (16) while shooting 19-of-41 from the field (.463).
FOUL SHOTS--The Wolfpack is shooting .738 from the foul line in ACC games (183-248). That’s fourth-best in the league. Overall, State is shooting .721 from the free throw stripe.
THE SLASHER –Junior Gavin Grant was forced into a difficult spot when Engin Atsur was injured. The slashing shooting guard was forced to play the point and it was a tough transition, especially against higher-level competition. With Atsur back, Grant has benefited. In the last 8 games, Grant is shooting .513 from the field (39-of-76). The junior is the team’s No.2 scorer in ACC games (15.5) and has shot .510 against league opponents (76-149), including 37 percent from 3-point range (14-38).
INSIDE FIRST --State no longer relies as much on three-point shooting as in past seasons, but that does not mean the Wolfpack can’t shoot 3-pointers. In its last 12 games, State is shooting .407 from 3-point range (86-211). Under Sidney Lowe, the Pack is an inside-out team. Only 33 percent of State’s shots come from the arc compared to 46 percent last season.
ACC ROOKIE OF YEAR ?--Redshirt freshman Brandon Costner is the ACC’s top freshman scorer and rebounder. That’s quite an improvement from last season which was cut short by injury after playing in only five games. The former Parade and McDonalds High School All-American leads the Pack in scoring (16.1), rebounding (7.7) and 3-point field goals (48). Costner recorded his 7th double-double of the season with 13 points and 11 rebounds against No.25 Virginia Tech on Feb. 18.
MR. VERSATILE—Courtney Fells is the best athlete on the Wolfpack team and he has contributed in several ways this season. The sophomore not only leads the team in steals (26) and blocked shots (31), but he’s been an occasional defensive stopper. In two games against Virginia Tech’s Zabian Dowdell, Fells held the ACC’s best one-on-one player to a combined 25 points. He also played solid defense in the Pack’s win over North Carolina on Feb 3rd while scoring a career-high 21 points. Offensively, in his last 11 games, Fells is shooting .481 from the field (51-106).
