North Carolina State University Athletics
Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: Duke
1/19/2007 12:00:00 AM | Men's Basketball
No. 14/17 DUKE (15-3, 2-2) at NC STATE (11-6, 1-3)
DATE:
TIME: Tip-off:
RADIO: Wolfpack Radio Network.
AIRTIME:
TELEVISION: ABC
OPPONENTDuke is starting to look more like Duke. After back-to-back ACC losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, the Blue Devils have won two straight. Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts led the way as Duke routed
The Blue Devils offense is still developing, but its solid pressure defense caused trouble all night, forcing
The Deacons leading scorer, Kyle Visser, was held to only 12 points while freshman point guard, Ishmael Smiththe ACC’s assist leader at 6.3 per gamefinished with no assists and eight turnovers.
Paulus, who played poorly in Duke’s first two ACC games, was better against the Deaks. He led Duke with 17 points, including 5-of-10 shooting from 3-point range and dished out 4 assists in 38 minutes. McRoberts was also solid with 11 points, 8 rebounds and a game-high 6 assists.
Duke led 35-21 lead at the intermission, thanks to 14 points from Paulus. The Blue Devils struggled in the second half, missing 14 of their first 19 shots, but
When a program loses a senior class that included J.J. Redick and Sheldon Williams and is forced to rely on younger players there is bound to be an adjustment period. Duke has been working through that.
Coach Mike Krzyzewski has only one senior, Joe Pagliuca and one junior, DeMarcus Nelson, on his roster. That marks the fewest upperclassmen for Duke since 1945-46.
Duke’s offense has taken the biggest hit. Prior to the
Outside the arc, Nelson, Paulus and Scheyer are the top gunners. That trio had attempted 83 percent of Duke’s three-point shots. For the season, Paulus is shooting nearly 47 percent from the bonusphere. Overall Duke is averaging 5.7 three-point field goals a game while about 29 percent of Duke’s shots come from the arc.
Inside, McRoberts is among the top-10 in the ACC in rebounding, assists and assist-to-turnover ratio, but has also struggled some offensively. He’s Duke’s No.2 scorer and has scored in double figures in 8 straight games. In his last 6 games, McRoberts has averaged 14.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.5 blocks.
A portion of Duke’s recent offensive struggles can be traced to poor ball handling. Duke’s average of 17.5 turnovers a game versus league opponents is among the highest in the ACC and its turnover margin is in the bottom fourth of the conference.
Duke forced a season-high 28 turnovers in its loss at Georgia Tech, but its own miscues have been costly.
In ACC games, the Blue Devils have 70 turnovers compared to 60 assists. That is rare for Duke. In fact, the Blue Devils have finished the season with more turnovers than assists only six times under Coach K.
Nelson, McRoberts and Scheyer are Duke’s top scoring threats. All average in double figures. Nelson, who leads Duke in scoring, is ranked in the ACC’s top-20 in that category. He has been the team’s leading scorer six times this season.
Scheyer has been pretty consistent all season, but lately he’s stepped up offensively. He led the Blue Devils in scoring at Georgia Tech and at
Even with all the youth, Duke’s trademark defense is still pretty solid and when it’s clicking it can force opponents out of their set offensive patterns in a hurry.
The Blue Devils have allowed only two opponents 50 percent or better shooting from the field this season. Meanwhile, the scoring defense has been outstanding. Duke leads the ACC overall (55.2) and in league games (61.5) in keeping points off the scoreboard.
Except for McRoberts, the Blue Devils don’t block a lot of shots, but they can hold their own on the boards. They’re +4.9 in the ACC in rebound margin in league games, but are near the bottom in offensive rebounding.
What is a bit surprising is how well ACC opponents are shooting against the Blue Devils. Through four ACC games, the opposition is hitting at a 45 percent clip from the field and .404 from the 3-point arc. Those numbers have gone down in the last two games.
The Devils usually make opponents pay for fouling. They get to the line an average of 23 times a game, but this season Duke is not shooting foul shots like teams of the recent past (.685). However, Duke has made more free throws than its opponents have attempted (287-to-254).
Last season, Duke beat State 81-68 in
PROBABLE DUKE STARTERS
No. Name Pos. Ht. Class PPG RPG APG
21 DeMarcus Nelson G 6'4 Jr. 14.4 5.3 1.9
30 Jon Scheyer G 6'5 Fr. 11.7 3.0 2.1
03 Greg Paulus G 6’1 Fr. 8.4 1.9 3.4
42 Lance Thomas F 6'8 Fr. 5.1 2.7 --
02 Josh McRoberts F 6'10 So. 12.6 7.7 2.5*
TOP RESERVES:
15 Gerald Henderson G/F 6'4 Fr. 6.0 2.9 1.2
14 David McClure F 6'6 So. 4.7 5.3 --
05 Martynas Pocius G 6’5 So. 1.7 0.5 --
55 Brian Zoubek F 7’0 Fr. 5.1 3.1 --
* Blocked shots per game
A WINWould give the Wolfpack its first 2-game ACC winning streak of the season and improve State to 12-6 overall and 2-3 in the conference. The Pack would break a 3-game losing streak to Duke in the series and mark Sidney Lowe’s first career victory over the Blue Devils. State would move to 11-3 at home and 1-2 in conference home games. The victory would be the first this season for State over a ranked team and its first overall since beating 15th ranked
A LOSSWould be the Pack’s third in the last four games, dropping State to 11-7 overall and 1-4 in the ACC. It would mark the Pack’s first 1-4 ACC start since the 2000-01 season when State finished 5-11 in the league. The Wolfpack would drop to 10-4 at home and 0-3 in ACC home games. Duke would beat the Pack for the fourth straight time in the series and win the last two games played in
NOT PLAYING WITH A FULL DECK Senior guard Engin Atsur will try to play against Duke after missing 11 of the previous 12 games. When he is out of the lineup, the Wolfpack is missing a lot more than a senior leader. Atsur is also the team’s best ball handler, shooter, perimeter defender and the only player who has significant experience at point guard. Atsur pulled his left hamstring six minutes into the
3-POINT DEFENSE AND REBOUNDING Those two areas have been major issues for the young Wolfpack. In 4 ACC games, opponents are 30-79 from the three-point arc (38%) while outrebounding State 157-112 overall and 64-25 on the offensive glass.
TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME--The Pack’s loss to No.18 Clemson on Jan. 9 was only its third at home. State is 10-3 at the
DEFENSIVE DIALOG Although the defense took a big step forward at
BIG BEN --The most improved player on the NC State team is Ben McCauley. He’s tied for the team lead in scoring (16.6), leads the Pack in shooting (.614) and steals (1.4) while running second in rebounding (6.6) and total assists (63). Not bad for a guy who saw very little playing time a year ago. The sophomore center averaged 5.5 minutes in 13 ACC games last season.
MAKING HACKERS PAY--State is once again a good free throw shooting team. The Pack is shooting .713 from the foul line (246-345). Last season, the Wolfpack shot .751 from the stripe.
DON’T GIVE ME LONG DISTANCE --State no longer relies as much on three-point shooting as in past seasons. The Pack is an inside-out team and that’s reflected in the stats. State averages nearly 17 attempts and 5.7 made three-point field goals a game. However, the Pack stepped up in its last two games, hitting 18-of-34 shots from the arc (.529). Last season nearly 46 percent of State’s shots came from the bonusphere. This season that number is down to 32 percent.
THE OLD MANGuard Engin Atsur is the Wolfpack’s only senior and its only point guard. The native of
POINTS OFF TURNOVERS In 4 ACC games, opponents have scored 47 points off 55 NC State turnovers. Clemson was the most effective foe. The No.18 Tigers forced 17 miscues and turned them into 21 points.
GENERAL GRANT WON’T SURRENDER Junior Gavin Grant was forced into a difficult spot when Engin Atsur was injured. The slashing shooting guard was forced to play the point and has tried to make the best of a difficult situation. Grant continues to score (16.1) and rebound (5.6) while leading the Wolfpack in assists (4.8). He’s also played every minute in 6 games this season. In his last 4 games, Grant has averaged 21.5 points (86) while shooting 32-of-53 from the field (.604).
BOARD
COSTNER IS CONNECTING--Redshirt freshman Brandon Costner played in only five games before an injury ended his 2005-06 season. This season, Costner is showing the potential that made him a Parade and McDonalds High School All-American. He leads the Pack in rebounding (7.8) and is tied for the team lead in scoring (16.6) while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field. He also leads the Pack with 28 three-point field goals.
HOW MAY I ASSIST YOU? --NC State is averaging an assist on an impressive 60 percent of its field goals (260-429) this season. The Pack had 23 assists on 29 field goals in its loss to
RED HOT HORNER Freshman Dennis Horner can shoot and his numbers reflect that. In his last two games, Horner has made 9-of-11 field goal attempts, including 5-of-6 from 3-point range. The
