North Carolina State University Athletics
Tony Haynes: An Unpredictable ACC Race
7/26/2005 12:00:00 AM | Football
July 26, 2005
If the ACC preseason football poll that was released on Monday is to be believed, then Florida State and Virginia Tech will be meeting in the first ever league championship game scheduled for early December in Jacksonville, Florida. As we know from experience, preseason polls are rarely accurate, which means there's a very good chance that the Hokies and Seminoles could very well be watching the ACC title game instead of playing in it. Coming off a disappointing 5-6 season and the first bowl-less campaign in the Chuck Amato era, NC State will be out to prove that what happened in 2004 was a mere speed bump that briefly slowed down a program that is still on the rise.
The Wolfpack was picked to finish third - behind Florida State and Boston College - in the Atlantic Division of the newly expanded ACC. By selecting the Pack ahead of the likes of Clemson and Maryland, media members are suggesting that they believe that NC State will again be strong on defense and improved on offense.
Fair enough.
But the reason preseason polls are so imperfect and futile is simple: they can't predict the little intangibles that truly affect the won-loss record, things like injuries, turnover margin, success or failure in close games and key officials calls that can go one way or the other.
Look no further than last season for a reference point. After NC State knocked off Virginia Tech in Blacksburg early, who would have thought that the Hokies would have gone on to win the league title, while the Wolfpack would sink into lower division oblivion?
"Virginia Tech stayed healthy," Amato said on Monday. "As the season went on, we lost a bunch of linemen. That hurt us an awful lot."
That it did. Behind a makeshift offensive line down the stretch, the Wolfpack offense looked as if it was running in place. Once the holes up front disappeared, so did the running game. And when the running game vanished, the play-action passing attack that had allowed quarterback Jay Davis to put up respectable numbers in the middle of the season was no longer a factor.
Under new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman this season, the Wolfpack will be looking for more consistent production. But that goal will only be achieved if the offensive line creates running lanes for a talented corps of running backs and gives Davis the time he needs to set his feet and deliver the ball on target, on time.
Mike Barry has proven himself to be an outstanding offensive line coach over the years, but he's not a miracle worker. He and Amato can only hope that this will be one of those seasons when their top five or six linemen can stay on the field each and every week.
If that does happen, then perhaps the Pack will finish even higher than that predicted finish.
When the preseason poll was released on Monday, the only coaches that were complaining were those who had teams that were either picked at the top or the bottom. John Bunting and Ted Roof of North Carolina and Duke, respectively, tore the results of the poll up when the Tar Heels were picked to finish fifth and the Blue Devils sixth in the Coastal Division.
And Bobby Bowden of Florida State claimed that sportswriters must not have been reading their own stories when they voted the Seminoles as the team to beat in the Atlantic Division. With starter Wyatt Sexton out for the season (Lyme Disease), FSU will be forced to start a redshirt freshman at quarterback.
Bowden is a lot like former North Carolina basketball coach Dean Smith, who always tried - without much success -- to claim underdog status. Not possible. Smith is the all-time winningest coach in men's basketball, while Bowden is number one on the football list.
As long as Bowden is roaming the sidelines and Florida State is repeatedly putting together highly ranked recruiting classes year after year, the Seminoles will always be picked as a favorite.
As for Amato, he didn't have much to say about the preseason predictions. Also left unsaid was his belief that the Wolfpack could do better than expected if those things preseason polls don't take into account swing the Pack's way this fall.
