North Carolina State University Athletics
Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: Wake Forest
3/6/2005 12:00:00 AM | Men's Basketball
March 6, 2005
NC STATE (17-11, 7-8) vs. No. 4 WAKE FOREST (25-4, 12-3)
DATE:Sunday, March 6, 2005, at the RBC Center, Raleigh, NC (19,722)
TIME: Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. EST
RADIO: Wolfpack Radio Network
AIRTIME: 7:30 p.m. EST
TELEVISION: Fox Sports Net
OPPONENT--Wake Forest stayed unbeaten at home with a come-from-behind 98-91 victory over Georgia Tech on Wednesday night. Three seniors, playing their final game at Joel Coliseum were instrumental in the win.
Vytas Danelius had 17 points and 11 rebounds while Taron Downey scored 13 of his 15 points in the second half and sparked two pivotal runs with three-point baskets. Jamaal Levy, the Deacons only other scholarship senior, scored 9 of his 10 points in the second half.
The trio stepped it up after Wake Forest fell behind 45-37 at halftime and got a lecture from coach Skip Prosser during the intermission. The chewing out resulted in better ball handling and shooting. Wake Forest committed only three turnovers in the second half, and shot 69 percent from the field (18-26) in the final 20 minutes. The Deacons also won the boards 37-29.
Georgia Tech (16-10, 7-8) used an aggressive man-to-man defense to throw an early blanket on the Deacons trio of guards. Paul, Downey and Justin Gray combined to shoot only 3-of-12 in the first half and were not effective defensively, either.
That changed following halftime, thanks to Downey who sparked an 18-9 run that put the Deacons in control. Paul, who shot 2-for-7 in the first half, finished with 17 points and seven assists. Wake Forest closed the game by making eight of nine free throws in the final minute to lock up the win.
Free throw shooting was a huge factor. The Demon Deacons were 35-of-46 from the line while Georgia Tech attempted only 17 foul shots and made 16. Three-point shooting (11-25) helped Tech stay in the game with B.J Elder and Jarrett Jack shooting a combined 9-of-18 from the bonusphere.
Jack led Georgia Tech with 23 points, while Elder had 22 and Luke Schenscher added 18.
Since its loss at Duke on Feb. 20, Wake Forest has won three straight games and has a chance to tie the school record for single-season victories on Sunday. During the latest three-game stretch, the Decaons have shot the ball very well from beyond the arc, sinking 29-of-59 three-point attempts (49.2%).
Wake Forest is tough to beat because it is very difficult to outscore the Deacons. They rank third in the nation in scoring (86.4) and against ACC teams average 89.5 points a game.
Seeking a high possession game, the Deaks usually have four, three-point shooters on the floor at once who can also drive the ball. That makes them very tough to defend.
Paul is one of the nation's premier guards. He shoots almost 51 percent from three-point range, leads the ACC in assist to turnover ratio (2.53) and in ACC games, tops the league in assists and steals. Gray, another of the ACC's best players, can also light it up from the bonusphere (.403), along with Downey (.417) and back-up center Chris Ellis (.588)
While the Deak's perimeter and transition games are lethal, the lane is not easy for opponents to defend either. 290-pound center, Eric Williams, is one of the hottest players in the ACC. In his last 11games, he's averaged 16.9 points and 10.1 rebounds while shooting 60 percent from the field.
Jamaal Levy is also a tough match-up and shoots nearly 50 percent from the field while Danelius is a veteran who plays hard and is versatile offensively. Ellis and Kyle Visser provide adequate inside depth.
It's very difficult to outrebound Wake Forest. The Deaks have a +8 rebounding margin on ACC opponents and average 14.2 offensive rebounds a game. Plus, only four teams have outrebounded them all season. Williams and Levy are excellent on the glass while Paul is one of the league's best rebounding guards. Off the bench, Trent Strickland brings an average of nearly four rebounds a game and can also shoot from long-range.
Wake Forest has taken some heat for its defense this season, but when the Deaks are playing winning basketball, they're also on top of their game defensively. In their 25 wins, only one opponent (NC State) has shot 50 percent or better. However, opponents cracked the 50 percent barrier in each of the Deacons four losses. In ACC games, Wake Forest is allowing 77.3 points and .456 shooting from the field.
In the first meeting between Wake Forest and NC State on Feb.10, the Wolfpack's Julius Hodge did not enter the game until 9:57 to play in the first half and the Deacons raced to a 16-point halftime lead. The Pack cut the margin to five with 7:31 left, but Wake Forest used a 6-0 run and kept the Pack scoreless for almost three-minutes to secure an 86-75 victory. Hodge scored a season-high 27 points for State. Justin Gray led five Deacons in double figures with 18 points.
A Wake Forest win coupled with a Duke victory over North Carolina would give the Deacons the ACC regular season title. State needs a victory to finish 8-8 in the ACC and keep hopes alive for a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
The Wolfpack has won the last three of the last four games in the series including a regular season sweep last year and will need to control tempo, limit transition opportunities for Wake Forest and shoot well to win again.
PROBABLE WAKE FOREST STARTERS
A WIN--Would be the Wolfpack's third in-a-row and fifth in its last six games, improving State to 18-11 overall and 8-8 in the ACC, heading into the conference tournament next week. The Pack's .500 ACC record and positive momentum in the final three weeks of the regular season could be enough to earn State an NCAA Tournament bid. The Pack would split the regular season series with Wake Forest and win for the third time in the last four games in the series. State would record its third win this season over a ranked team and first over a top-5 opponent since beating Duke at home last season. The Pack would improve to 11-5 at home. Wake Forest would drop to 25-5 overall and 12-4 in the ACC.
A LOSS--Would break a 2-game winning streak for NC State and all but erase the Wolfpack's hopes for an NCAA Tournament bid. Wake Forest would sweep the season series with the Wolfpack for the first time since 2003, sending State to 17-12 overall and 7-9 in the ACC. The Wolfpack would head to next week's ACC Tournament needing to win the title to make the NCAA Tournament field. Wake Forest would win its fourth straight game to finish the regular season at 26-4 overall and 13-3 in the ACC. The 26 overall victories would tie a single-season school record. The Wolfpack finishes the 2004-05 regular season with a 10-6 home record while the Deacons improve to 8-4 on the road.
GOING OUT ON TOP --Julius Hodge, who will play his final ACC regular season game on Sunday, is the leading active scorer in the ACC with 1,935 career points. The 2004 ACC Player of the Year was terrific in the Pack's win at Virginia on March 2. In 39 minutes, Hodge had 17 points, 5 rebounds and a game-high 8 assists.
HISTORY MAKING HODGE --With 20 points and 5 assists in the Pack's loss to UNC on Feb. 22, Julius Hodge became only the fourth player in ACC history to record 1,900 points, 700 rebounds, 400 assists and 150 steals in a career. The other players are Duke's Danny Ferry and Grant Hill and Bob Sura of Florida State.
THE LINE ON HODGE --For the better part of this season, Julius Hodge has struggled with his free throw shooting. However, lately he's started to regain his touch. In his last 6 games, Hodge is 35-45 of the foul line (.777). At Virginia on 3/2, Hodge was 11-of-15. Last season, Hodge shot 83 percent from the foul line..
TONY'S BEEN TERRIFIC --The return of guard, Tony Bethel, who missed an extended period due to illness, has made a huge difference. The redshirt junior hit the game-winning basket at Georgia Tech on 2/13, dished out a game-high 6 assists in the win over Virginia Tech on 2/26 and tallied 16 points and 6 rebounds at Virginia on 3/2. In his last 9 games he has averaged 12.4 points and 4.3 rebounds while shooting .530 from the field (35-66). Prior to his illness in late December, Bethel was among the team leaders in assists, steals and rebounds. The Wolfpack was 3-6 while Bethel was either out or severely limited.
DEFENSIVE DIFFERENCE --The Wolfpack's defense, a problem in mid-season, is improving. State has held its last 5 opponents to an average of 64.2 points (321) and .411 shooting from the field (105-255). The Wolfpack is near the top in scoring defense in ACC games (71.2).
BULGARIAN BOMBER --Ilian Evtimov, a native of Sofia, Bulgaria, has been heating up from the three-point line lately. In his last 6 games, he's 15-of-28 from the arc (.536). He knocked down five three-pointers in the Pack's win over Maryland on 2/16. Evtimov is the Pack's top three-point shooter in ACC games (33-67) at 49 percent.
JUST PLAIN SOLID -- Engin Atsur has had a solid ACC season. The sophomore led the Pack with 18 points in the win over Virginia Tech on Feb. 26 and shot 5-6 from the field. Even more impressive has been his ballhandling and decision-making. Atsur has committed only 18 turnovers all season in ACC games. In the win over Maryland on 2/16, Atsur played 38 minutes with no turnovers. In his last 10 games, Atsur has averaged 11.6 points and shot .448 from three-point range (26-58). He's also played some tough defense this season, holding Duke's J.J. Redick to 8 points, Georgia Tech's Jarrett Jack to 16, Maryland's John Gilchrist to 13 and Zabian Dowdell of Virginia Tech to 12 points.
NOT SO FOUL ANYMORE --Free throw shooting, a problem earlier this season, has started to improve. In the last seven games, State is shooting 76 percent, sinking 113 of its last 148 foul shots.
ARC ACCURACY --In its last 6 games, State has made an average of 9.8 three-point field goals a game while shooting ..418 from the arc during that span (59-141). In ACC games, the Wolfpack is among the leaders in three-point field goal percentage (.406) making 134 of 330 attempts.
WHAT MISTAKES? --The Wolfpack is averaging only 12.7 turnovers per game (355) and just 13.25 turnovers in its 8 ACC losses (106).
TWO VETS RETURN -- Senior forward, Levi Watkins, saw his first game action since January when he played the final minute of the Pack's win over Virginia Tech on Feb. 26. The veteran suffered a sprained right medial collateral ligament during practice on February 2nd and missed six games. Junior guard Cameron Bennerman returned to the lineup on Feb. 10 after missing the previous 5 games with an elbow injury. Since his return, Bennerman has averaged 5.4 points (27) and 15 minutes (75) in five games. He did not play at Virginia on Mar. 2. With Watkins and Bennerman back, the Wolfpack finally has its full complement of players available for the first time since late December.
HEARTBREAK HOTEL -- Four of State's ACC losses were by a combined 10 points.
SIMMONS STEPS UP --Cedrick Simmons has become an important contributor during the ACC season. The freshman reserve center scored a career-high 16 points against Virginia on Feb. 5. Against ACC opponents this season, Simmons has averaged 4.2 points and 2.1 rebounds while shooting .527 from the field.
