North Carolina State University Athletics
Gary Hahn's Scouting Report: Wake Forest
2/9/2005 12:00:00 AM | Men's Basketball
Feb. 9, 2005
NC STATE (13-9, 3-6) @ No. 6 WAKE FOREST (19-3, 7-2)
DATE:Thursday, February 10, 2005 @ Lawrence Joel Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC (14,655)
TIME: Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. EST
RADIO: Wolfpack Radio Network
AIRTIME: 6:30 p.m. EST
TELEVISION: ESPN
OPPONENT--Wake Forest is loaded with good perimeter players and one of them stepped up on Saturday. Taron Downey scored 18 points off the bench to help the Demon Deacons beat Virginia Tech 83-63 at Cassell Coliseum.
Downey got his opportunity to shine when Justin Gray was forced to go to the bench in early foul trouble. He responded with 13 points in only 12 minutes to give Wake Forest a 41-25 lead at the intermission.
In the second half, Virginia Tech (12-8, 5-4) cut the lead to 50-43 with 13 minutes remaining. However, Downey hit a huge 3-pointer with the shot clock winding down that took the crowd out of the game. The basket sparked a 14-0 Wake Forest run and the Hokies were never closer than 15 points the rest of the way despite a combined 33 points from Jamon Gordon and Zabian Dowdell.
Defensive stops were hard to come by for Tech and the Deacons consistently earned good scoring opportunities from 3-point range or successfully lobbed the ball inside. Wake shot 61 percent in the first half and finished the game with 58 percent accuracy from the field. Poor shot selection doomed the Hokies to 38 percent, including only 2-of-13 from 3-point range.
Tech did a good job on Gray and Chris Paul, but couldn't handle Eric Williams inside. Gray scored 16 points. Paul, who was shutout until 3:30 to play, finished with three points and nine assists. However, Williams recorded a double-double with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
The Deacons outrebounded Virginia Tech 41-32, but turned the ball over 18 times.
After dropping two of three games, Wake Forest has won three in-a-row and is one victory away from clinching its fourth straight 20-win season. The Deacons haven't beaten cupcakes either. According to the Sagarin Ratings, WFU has the nation's toughest schedule and is the only ACC team to play four games against ranked non-conference opponents.
Offensively, the Deacs are high octane. They rank third nationally in scoring offense (86.2) and have recorded at least 81 points in all nine ACC games.
Wake Forest desires a high possession game and most of the time has four, three-point shooters on the floor at once. The Deacons are shooting almost 50 percent from the field and 41 percent from the three-point line this season.
Paul leads the ACC in three-point shooting percentage (.532), assist to turnover ratio (2.52) and is one of the nation's best guards. Gray, another of the ACC's premier players, can also light it up from the bonusphere (.415), along with Downey (.364) and back-up center Chris Ellis (.571)
While the Deacs' perimeter and transition games are lethal, the lane is not easy for opponents to defend either. A slimmer Williams has been a difference maker. The 290 pound center is much improved offensively and has recorded four straight double-doubles. Jamaal Levy is also a tough match-up and is shooting 51 percent from the field while Vytas Danelius is a veteran who plays hard and is versatile offensively. Ellis and Kyle Visser provide adequate inside depth.
National commentators constantly knock Wake Forest's defense. They say the Deacs give up too many points in ACC games (79.2) and allow opponents 39 percent shooting from the three-point arc. The only problem is that opponents must outshoot Wake Forest. Occasionally that happens. ACC opponents that have shot 50 percent or better from the field (Florida State and Georgia Tech) have beaten the Deacons, but both games were extremely close.
It's also hard to win the battle of the boards with Wake. The Deacs average nearly 14 offensive rebounds a game and only four opponents have outrebounded them all season. Williams and Levy are excellent on the glass while Paul is one of the league's best rebounding guards. Off the bench, Trent Strickland brings an average of four rebounds a game and can also shoot from long-range.
The Wolfpack has won the last three games in the series including a regular season sweep last year and will need to control tempo, limit transition opportunities for Wake Forest and shoot well to keep continue the streak.
A WIN--Would stop a two-game losing streak and give the Wolfpack its second victory in four games, improving State to 14-9 overall and 4-6 in the ACC. The Pack would record its fourth straight win over the Demon Deacons in the series and second in-a-row at Joel Coliseum. NC State would beat a top-10 team for the second time this season and drop Wake Forest to 19-4 overall and 7-3 in the ACC. The Pack road record would even at 4-4, including a 3-3 mark in ACC away games. The two teams will meet again on Sunday, March 6th at the RBC Center to end the regular season.
A LOSS--Would be the third in-a-row for NC State, sending the Wolfpack to 13-10 overall and 3-7 in the ACC. Wake Forest would record its fourth straight 20-win season, improving to 20-3 overall and 8-2 in conference play. The Deacons would break a 3-game losing streak to NC State in the series and avenge last year's loss at Joel Coliseum. Wake Forest would stay unbeaten at home (12-0) while the Wolfpack's road record would drop to 3-5, including a 2-4 mark in ACC away games. The two teams will meet again on Sunday, March 6th at the RBC Center to end the regular season.
DIFFERENCE MAKER --The return of guard, Tony Bethel, who missed an extended period due to illness, has made a big difference since his return. In his last 3 games, the redshirt junior has averaged 16.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists while shooting 53 percent from the field (16-30) and 41% from three-point range (7-17). Prior to his illness in late December, Bethel was among the team leaders in assists, steals and rebounds. The Wolfpack was 3-6 while Bethel was either out or severely limited.
TURKISH TERROR -- Engin Atsur, a native of Istanbul, Turkey, has committed only 12 turnovers all season in ACC games. Atsur leads the ACC in assist to turnover ratio in league games (2.47). He's also played some tough defense, holding Duke's J.J. Redick to 8 points, Georgia Tech's Jarrett Jack to 16 and Maryland's John Gilchrist to 13 points. In his last 5 games, Atsur has averaged 12.4 points and shot 48 percent from three-point range (14-29). Against Clemson on Jan. 29th, Atsur scored a career-high 21 points and shot 5 of 8 from three-point range.
HODGE HELD -- Julius Hodge was held to a season-low 6 points and took only 5 shots from the field in Saturday's loss to Virginia, breaking a streak of 36 straight games scoring in double-figures. The outstanding senior.continues to lead the Pack in scoring (17.7) assists (4.3) and rebounding (7.3). The 2004 ACC Player of the Year has five double-doubles this season, including 20 points and 11 rebounds at Maryland on 1/23/05.
SOLID SIMMONS --Cedrick Simmons has stepped up his game lately. The freshman reserve center scored a career-high 16 points against Virginia on Saturday and he's been solid in his last 5 ACC games. Simmons has averaged 9.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and has shot 61 percent from the field (16-26) during that span.
NO CHARITY HERE --After leading the nation in free throw shooting a year ago, the Wolfpack's production has fallen off dramatically this season. State is shooting only .688 at the foul line (337-490).
DIALING LONG DISTANCE --State is the No. 4 three-point shooting team in the ACC against league opponents (.397) and No. 3 in three-point field goals per ACC game (8.3).
CAN I HELP YOU? --NC State is averaging an assist on an impressive 61% of its field goals (345-569). Against ACC opponents, the Pack is No.2 in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.19).
HOT OPPONENTS & CLOSE LOSSES -- In its six ACC losses, Wolfpack opponents have shot a combined .495 from the field (152-307) and .423 from three-point range (41-97). Four ACC losses were by a combined 10 points.
TURNOVER TALE --The Wolfpack is averaging 12.4 turnovers per game including season-low 5 turnovers against Liberty University. In its six ACC losses, State has averaged only 12.0 turnovers.
BENNERMAN AND WATKINS OUT -- Junior guard Cameron Bennerman has missed the last 5 games with an elbow injury suffered in practice on January 21. Bennerman is the Wolfpack's No. 2 scorer and top three-point shooter this season (.423). Senior forward Levi Watkins will miss 4-6 weeks after suffering a sprained right medial collateral ligament during practice on February 2nd.
